Is Total Recall your favourite movie? Is your mother named Marie? If so, there is a fair chance that you will be choosing Willie Mullin’s 10/1 co-favourite Total Recall or Gavin Cromwell’s 33/1 shot Raz de Maree as your Grand National selection tomorrow.
There is possibly no other race in the world that brings out the casual bettor quite like The National. From office sweepstakes to betting on ‘lucky’ numbers, there will be huge swathes of bets made on horses with little to with their form.
Betway survey creates an interesting overview of Grand National statistics
Betway has released some intriguing statistics on how the numbers add up for the big race, looking at everything from the colour of the silks to the number of words in a horse’s name. You can see some of the findings below:
So, does the graphic above tell us that we should be ploughing into horses that being with ‘R’ or looking for a horse with a two-word name? Not at all. But If you check out Betway Insider, which matched the trends with punters’ habits, you will see there is plenty of merit in the exercise.
However, for some, the most notable statistic will be the one at the very bottom of the graphic; the Grand National has only provided nine favourites as winners in the last 72 years. This great news for punters who like a little value.
Huge value in the odds over the last decade of Grand Nationals
And, we can take this even further for the last ten years, where we have seen one winner at 100/1 (Mon Mome, 2009), one winner at 66/1 (Auroras Encore, 2013) and two winners at 33/1 (Neptune Collonges, 2012, Rule the World, 2016).
It, of course, does not mean we should rule out the favourites like Anibale Fly (10/1), Blaklion (10/1) and the aforementioned Total Recall (10/1), but rather that we should simply respect those runners seen as outsiders.
Punters love the National because anyone can win
Part of the problem with the Grand National is that we do not have the usual indicators of form over these sorts of distances, i.e. it’s not as if all the horses in the race are running over four miles and 30 fences each month.
While that may be a problem for the punters who live and die by the form guide, it is also a boon for the casual punter. The race comes but once a year so, while you should do your research as per usual, don’t be surprised if a Perfect Candidate (66/1) or Tenor Nivernais (80/1) comes up trumps – it’s just the nature of the great race.