How To Pick A Winner

When Mon Mome romped home in the 2009 Grand National as a rank 100/1 outsider pundits everywhere were stunned. It just proves that picking a National winner is very difficult but the good news is that it’s not impossible. We can show you a couple of things to look out for when selecting your horses.

BEWARE THE HEAVY WEIGHTS

‘Hedgehunter‘ & ‘Don’t Push It‘ became the first winners since Corbiere to carry over 11st to victory. A pound here or there over 11st shouldn’t be a major worry but those horses carrying over 11st 3lbs should be viewed with caution. The simple fact is only two horses in history have managed to win carrying big weights, Red Rum and Don’t Push It. The 2008 Grand National winner, Comply or Die, weighed 10-09. Mon Mome won in 2009 carrying 11-00 and Ballabriggs carried 11-00 in 2011.

STAMINA & ENDURANCE

The Grand National is a grueling race, and we’ve always maintained that only horses experienced at running over 3 miles or more can be expected to be in with a shout. New BHA recommendations regarding this have now been put in place so that only horses who have previously finished fourth or better in a chase of 3m or further will be allowed entry. Don’t rule out horses that have previously entered and completed the Grand National, even if they finished nowhere. Mon Mome, Silver Birch, Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House and Montys Pass are all winners who also ran unsuccessfully the year before!

AGE BEFORE BEAUTY

Experience counts for much in the National. Eleven out of the last 17 winners were aged ten – including Ballabriggs and Don’t Push but nine is the new ten and horses are so well trained now that nine year olds are very much in favour. First, second and third place in both the 2008 and 2009 Grand Nationals were all nine years old. Seven of the last 10 winners ahve been 9 or 10 years old with the exception of Amberleigh House in 2004 (12), Bindaree in 2002 (8) and Red marauder in 2001 (11). Don’t back any seven year olds as it’s been 67 years since one won and few even finish the course!

FRENCH WINNER – NON!

Previously I’ve suggested that you should forget the French bred and trained horses and despite the tremendous win from French horse Mon Mome in 2009, I still stand by that because Mon Mome was trained by Venetia Williams in the UK! It has been over a Century since the last French trained horse won the National. Irish and British horses are specifically trained day in and day out, all year around, for this kind of steeplechase so go with one of them!

SUMMARY

Every now and then a major upset happens at the Grand National and the rule book goes out the window but if you want to give yourself the best chance of picking a winner then consider our tips…

Go for a nine/ten year old horse that weighs approx. 10-07 to 11 stone, who has run and finished at least one previous race of at least three miles, entered with an experienced jockey and, if possible, make it Irish or British!

And finally… sign up with an online bookmaker to avoid the queues at the local bookies on Saturday morning. Paddy Power are giving new customers a free bet if you sign-up today.

The 2008 Winner Proves a Point

Let’s look at the 2008 race – I followed my tips exactly, chose my four horses and three came home, netting me a nice little packet!

I looked at every horse running, ruled out the non-Irish, those younger than 9 and older than 10 years, looked at the weights they’d been given and and had a quick gander at the distances they had previously run. What I ended up with was four terrific horses that did exactly as hoped – came 1st, 2nd and 4th in the 2008 Grand National.

I plan on doing the same thing this year and my tip is to put aside the odds, it’s such a difficult race that luck is as much a part of it than anything and you can’t put odds on that!

Luck is as much a part of it than anything and you can’t put odds on that!

You should also go with your gut instinct. I told anybody who would listen that King John’s Castle was a great each-way bet despite the fact that he wasn’t that well known and and there didn’t appear to be much fuss about him before the race. My friends listened and backed him, some got on the action at 40/1 – as you can imagine they’re all very happy!

On an even happier little note – that’s the second year in a row that I tipped the winner!

Now all you need to do is pick a horse to back using our tips! To view the full list of Grand National runners Click Here. If you’d rather leave the selection of your Grand National horse to fate then why not let Red Rum pick out a horse for you – just Click Here.