If you’re new to the Grand National or have no idea how you go about picking a winner for 2013, then use this handy little guide to whittle down the entries so that hopefully you reasonable chance of making you a few quid on Saturday April 6th!
There are officially 57 horses remaining in the Grand National at the time of writing this and I am going to reduce that figure using the trends and stats over the last 20 years.
Eight from the last ten winners were either 9 or 10 years old. They tend to fair best in the Grand National because they are at the perfect age for stamina and maturity. But older horses are now of a higher calibre so shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. Over the last 20 years the stats are:
– 12 year old winners – 2 of them
– 11 year old winners – 3 of them
– 10 year old winners – 7 of them
– 9 year old winners – 6 of them
– 8 year old winners – 2 of them
– 7 year old winners – 0
So 16 of the last 20 winners have either been nine, ten or eleven years old! If we eliminate all of the horses that are not those ages we only have 41 horses left to choose from.
The heaviest winner in the last 20 years was Neptune Collonges on 11-06 in 2012. Dont Push It won on 11-05 in 2010 and all of the remaining 18 winners between 1992 and 2012 weighed a maximum of 11-01.
In fact you have to go back to 1977 to find another horse to win on more than 11-06 which was Red Rum and he ran off 11-08.
If we eliminate all of the remaining horses on this year’s list, who weigh more than 11-03 we are left with 33 horses who fit the criteria.
All ten of the previous 10 winners had a number of things in common and one of them was the fact that their Official Rating was between 138-157. Working off that basis and eliminating those who don’t measure up, we are left with just 23 horses to choose from.
Current form is incredibly important as it tells us the likelihood of a horses chances of getting around. If a horse has been rather poor lately then the chances are he won’t suddenly produce a miracle and win the 2013 Grand National!
All 10 of the previous ten winners had at least one top 3 finish in last their 3 runs so if we take away those wo have not done so well lately we are left with 17 runners.
When the entry rules changed, it impacted the quality of the horses entered, for the better, and unless your horse placed at a distance beyond 3m you couldn’t qualify. Taking that one step further, all 10 of the last ten winners have actually WON at three miles or over. So if we use that statistic we are still left with a relatively high number of 16 runners.
Has the horse fallen or unseated his rider in the last two seasons? All horses make mistakes at some point but if they consistently fall or unseat their jockeys then the Grand National is not the place you want to cross your fingers and hope that they have a good day!
Since 2001, only one winning horse had ‘Unseated’ his rider in the previous year and that was Bindaree in 2002. Three others had one Fall within a year of winning the Grand National – Red Marauder (2001), Hedgehunter (2005) and Silverbirch (2007). No other winners had fallen or unseated their riders within two years of their win.
By the way, being ‘Brought Down’ is not the same as falling as that’s the fault of another horse.
With that in mind, I can now eliminate six more horses who have either fallen or unseated their rider in the last two years leaving 10 still in contention.
Of those ten horses, only 5 have never fallen or unseated their riders during their entire career.
Big Money Wins
With all 10 of the last 10 winners all winning a major Chase worth at least £29,000, I’ve gone through all of the past wins for our 10 remaining contenders and have further whittled down the number to just five left who meet nearly ever stat and historical fact that we could come up with!
[Racecard Colbert Station]
[Racecard Balthazar King]
Of course these are just statistics and on the day luck is as big a factor as anything and that’s something the numbers won’t show. Ultimately Neptune Collonges won last year bucking every trend and statistic known to mankind so pick your favourite any which way you like and just have fun watching the best race in the world!