Generally we’d advise against backing a horse that carries over 11-03 in weight, even with the recent wins of Tiger Roll, ‘Neptune Collonges‘ and ‘Don’t Push It’ who all carried more than 11-03 to victory, they remain the exception that proves the rule.

Since Corbiere carried over 11st to victory in 1983 only a few runners have done the same. Tiger Roll in 2019, Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges,’Hedgehunter‘ & ‘Don’t Push It‘ have equalled the feat. The simple fact is that very few horses have managed to win carrying big weights. The 2008 Grand National winner, Comply or Die, weighed 10-09. Mon Mome won in 2009 carrying 11-00, Ballabriggs carried 11-00 in 2011, Auroras Encore carried 10-03 in 2017 and in 2017 One For Arthur scored carrying 10-11.

The Grand National is a grueling race, and we’ve always maintained that only horses experienced at running over 3 miles or more can be expected to be in with a shout. New BHA recommendations regarding this have now been put in place so that only horses who have previously finished fourth or better in a chase of 3m or further will be allowed entry. Don’t rule out horses that have previously entered and completed the Grand National, even if they finished nowhere. Mon Mome, Silver Birch, Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House and Montys Pass are all winners who also ran unsuccessfully the year before!

Age is one of the best indicators to a horse’s chances of winning the Grand National. Looks for runners who are aged 8, 9, 10 or 11 as the majority of winners in the last ten years have fallen within this bracket. Two of the last seven winners, meanwhile, have been 11-year-olds – Auroras Encore in 2013 and Pineau De Re in 2014. It’s worth noting that 8-year-olds have won three out of the last five races. Be wary of backing any seven-year-olds as it’s been more than 75 years since one won and few even finish the course!

Previously I’ve suggested you should forget the French bred and trained horses, until recently they had a terrible record in the National, but the tremendous win from French horse Mon Mome in 2009, and Neptune Collonges in 2012 is rewriting the form book. However, those two winners were trained in the United Kingdom. It has been over a Century since the last French trained horse won the National.